Assessing Risk and Making a Plan -- The Ben Carson Method

When you consider a risky choice, how do you evaluate it? Do you worry about everything that could go wrong? Or do you focus on the positive possibilities to the exclusion of potential loss?

I recently read the 2007 book Take the Risk by Dr. Ben Carson, the noted pediatric neurosurgeon. In it, he discusses the method he uses to evaluate choices. Carson calls it B/WA – best/worst analysis – because it takes into consideration the best that could happen if you act, the worst that could happen if you act, the best that could happen if you don’t act, and the worst that could happen if you don’t act. The analysis becomes more complicated as you factor in the who, what, where, when, how, and why of the specific situation, but the overall outline remains, along with the bottom line. In the book, Carson describes numerous examples from his own experience to flesh out the use of the B/WA.

Disaster preparedness is all about our approach toward risk. Concerns about what hazards might befall us shouldn't paralyze us, but should provoke thoughtful consideration. Some potential disasters are small, and there will be little difference between the best and worst outcomes—think a couple inches of snow. Others are significant and the worst outcome could be devastating—think a week-long power outage following an ice storm.

What is the best that could happen if you have no disaster plan in place? Of course, the best would be that no disaster ever occurs and you've spent no time or money on an unnecessary activity. But what is the worst that could happen? The business closes because you weren't prepared for the loss of contact with customers, employees who couldn't get to work, loss of data, interrupted supply chains, damage to the building, and so on.

On the flip side, what is the best that could happen if you take the time to make a disaster plan  with an eye toward resilience? You might not be able to stay open without interruption, but you’ll probably be back before your competition. You might even be able to help your community recover and build a new and loyal customer base. What’s the worst that can happen if you make a plan and no disaster ever hits? You've spent a little time evaluating your business and making your employees feel more secure and valued.