Assessing Risk and Making a Plan -- The Ben Carson Method

When you consider a risky choice, how do you evaluate it? Do you worry about everything that could go wrong? Or do you focus on the positive possibilities to the exclusion of potential loss?

I recently read the 2007 book Take the Risk by Dr. Ben Carson, the noted pediatric neurosurgeon. In it, he discusses the method he uses to evaluate choices. Carson calls it B/WA – best/worst analysis – because it takes into consideration the best that could happen if you act, the worst that could happen if you act, the best that could happen if you don’t act, and the worst that could happen if you don’t act. The analysis becomes more complicated as you factor in the who, what, where, when, how, and why of the specific situation, but the overall outline remains, along with the bottom line. In the book, Carson describes numerous examples from his own experience to flesh out the use of the B/WA.

Disaster preparedness is all about our approach toward risk. Concerns about what hazards might befall us shouldn't paralyze us, but should provoke thoughtful consideration. Some potential disasters are small, and there will be little difference between the best and worst outcomes—think a couple inches of snow. Others are significant and the worst outcome could be devastating—think a week-long power outage following an ice storm.

What is the best that could happen if you have no disaster plan in place? Of course, the best would be that no disaster ever occurs and you've spent no time or money on an unnecessary activity. But what is the worst that could happen? The business closes because you weren't prepared for the loss of contact with customers, employees who couldn't get to work, loss of data, interrupted supply chains, damage to the building, and so on.

On the flip side, what is the best that could happen if you take the time to make a disaster plan  with an eye toward resilience? You might not be able to stay open without interruption, but you’ll probably be back before your competition. You might even be able to help your community recover and build a new and loyal customer base. What’s the worst that can happen if you make a plan and no disaster ever hits? You've spent a little time evaluating your business and making your employees feel more secure and valued. 

Preparing for the Expected

There is a lot of talk about preparing for the unexpected, but once we've thought about it and prepared for it (or bought insurance for it), is it really unexpected? I would argue that we prepare for a set of eventualities that, while uncertain in timing or probability, are well within the realm of possibility. In reality, we are preparing for the expected.

We lock the doors, because we expect that otherwise someone will come in and steal. We get the oil changed, because we expect that otherwise the engine will be damaged. We prepare for heavy rain by installing a drainage system, because we expect that otherwise we will have water in the basement. We purchase property insurance, because we expect to otherwise suffer financial ruin following a fire.

Somehow, though, preparing for a disaster by setting aside some food and water, making a communication plan with the family and employees, establishing a shelter area, or making the office or home less vulnerable by adding some security, can wait until tomorrow, or the day after that. Maybe it can wait, maybe no disaster--natural, human-caused, or technological--will ever hit your business or home. But, wouldn't you sleep better if you could expect to bounce back if and when the disaster hits?

Preparing for Hurricanes, No Matter What the Name

A recent study out of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign proclaims that "Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes." The study has sparked some debate, not the least of which centers on the methods. Rather than focus on the methodological questions, or the findings of the authors themselves, my interest is the broader question of why people don't take preparedness more seriously in general. (Here is a link to a National Geographic article reviewing both the study and its detractors.)

Given that hurricanes rarely impact the Cincinnati area--with the notable exception being Hurricane Ike in 2008, that left many without power for a few days to over a week and resulted in $553 million in damage claims--hurricane preparedness is not at the top of my to-do list. However, we do get plenty of other storms here, causing plenty of headaches and damage. Tornadoes, floods, winter storms, and heat emergencies are the main natural disasters facing this area. 

In some ways, we can become pretty complacent about our response to these types of disasters. We've seen the lengthy reports, often preempting regular programming, then the heavily-hyped storm passes us by. While we may be momentarily thankful, many are irritated by proactive school closures and other cancellations that end up seeming to be more of an inconvenience than a wise precaution. When a storm does hit the area, it probably won't impact our neighborhood. Ho-hum.

Sometimes, ignoring the need for preparedness is a defense mechanism. Natural disasters are beyond our control. Reporting labeling storms "snowmaggedon" or "snowpocalypse" is meant to attract attention, but is it too much? Do we take the fear and turn it into a joke to avoid panic? The potential to lose your home or office in a storm can be just too overwhelming to imagine. If we worried about every possible danger, we'd be paralyzed trying to figure out what to do next. But, while the disaster itself is certainly beyond our control, putting some precautions in place is completely under our control.

Or is it that we just have other things to do? Life is very busy these days. 

But when a storm does find you, will you be left in the dark? Office and home preparedness don't have to be overblown and expensive. A weather radio, knowing where the candles and/or flashlights and batteries are, a bit of food and water in the basement (not on the floor), boots or sneakers in the trunk of the car, a designated shelter area at the office, and a communications plan to ensure that everybody gets the word and gets to the safe place don't cost much in terms of money or time. And with current weather forecasting technology being what it is, you may even have time once the reports begin! (Unless you need a snow shovel. Or milk.)

Of course, the above list is a bare-bones start. I could go on and on. (And I will as time goes on!) But it is a start, and I'm betting you'll feel better if you take these basic steps at home and at work. And you may even be motivated to delve deeper and do some more. At least, I hope so. No matter whether it is Hurricane Betty or Snowmageddon. 

Who's Afraid of a Little Old Zombie?

Have you heard, FEMA is preparing for the Zombie Apocalypse? Homeland Security and the Centers for Disease Control are, too. (Check out these examples: CDC Preparedness 101 Zombie Apocalypse,  Community Preparedness Webinar--Zombie Awareness)

What? I thought zombies were make believe?

Of course they are, but, if you are prepared for the zombie apocalypse, you can surely handle any "normal" disaster that comes your way. Zombies, creepy as they are, are popular right now, and it is hoped that the preparedness lessons might stick.

Even Pinterest is preparing: Zombie Survival search results. Maybe a little over-the-top, but if that's what it takes to get you motivated, what's the harm?

So, if you did have to shelter-in-place from the zombies or evacuate ahead of them, would you be ready? What about when the tornado warning sounds? Or when the flood waters are rising? Or the earthquake strikes?

Some basic hurricane preparedness guidelines from FEMA can be applied to many hazards. First There Were Zombies Then Came Hurricanes.

Did You Hear That?

Did you know that warning sirens are only meant to warn those who are outdoors? If you are inside, especially in a noisy environment or well-sealed building, you won't--and aren't supposed to--hear them. In a place with piped in music, or no radios allowed, how will you get the warning?

You should have a weather radio. These systems also warn of other emergencies that might require taking cover or evacuation. They aren't expensive, and they can save your life.

Also, there are smart phone apps that push warnings. Some systems are starting to automatically include these apps with the phones, but for now you'll need to make sure you have one.

Oh, and when you hear the warning, on your radio, app, or the siren, take heed. Don't go outside to see what is happening!

An Example of Resilience from Nature

Nature is amazingly resilient. It is quite difficult, though not impossible, to completely wipe out a given area. If nothing else, weeds find a way to rebound. But, more often, damage is only partial, and new growth quickly covers over what appeared as wasteland.

On a smaller scale, this past winter was rougher than usual in the Cincinnati area, with long stretches of cold and a lot more snow than we are used to. It took out many plants that normally make it through. The knock out rose, pictured here, has become tremendously popular here in recent years. Blooming from late-April through mid-December, it seemed a very hardy choice. But, in the knock out's history here, there has not been this long and cold a winter. The knock outs have been slow to leaf out and bloom, with much winter damage showing on the branches--some is still visible in these pictures. Many homeowners were ready to write these plants off. But, cutting out the dead parts has allowed the new growth to emerge. The roots remained strong.

The roots carry the heart and strength of the knock out rose. The roots carry within them the plan for restoration and return to vitality. When the time was right, the resilient knock out was ready to bounce back. A little worse for wear, perhaps, but on its way back.

By building a strong root system--a continuity plan which accounts for potential disasters and lays out a response program--businesses can bounce back like nature, too.

Pinterest

I have a Pinterest board where I collect Emergency Preparedness ideas and products. Please check it out here. Any suggestions for things I should add? Do let me know with a comment. Thanks!